EmerioBanque

Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024

The key major and popular banks in this world are expecting international economic or financial growth that could ease again in the year 2024. It is also well squeezed and reduced by the enhanced rate of interest. So, it could be said that if the energy prices are higher and also where there is a steep slowdown in two biggest economies of the world.


The International economy is even forecasted to improve 2.9% during this year, however Reuters poll also showed, with the growth of the year which is also now slowing down to 2.6%.


There are many economists who expect the International economy to avoid recession, though have also flagged some of the possibilities related to "mild recessions" in the UK and in Europe.


Also, the soft-landing for United States still remains on cards, even though indecision around monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve and its path clouds this outlook. The growth of China is also seen to be quite weakening, and also exacerbated by the companies who are looking for the alternative production destinations that are quite cost efficient.

Following are forecasts from major global banks:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
GLOBALU.S.CHINAEURO AREAUKINDIA
Goldman Sachs2.60%2.10%4.80%0.90%0.6%6.3%
Morgan Stanley2.80%1.90%4.20%0.50%-0.1%6.4%
UBS2.60%1.10%4.40%0.60%0.6%6.2%
Barclays2.60%1.20%4.40%0.30%0.1%6.2%
J.P.Morgan2.20%1.60%4.90%0.40%0.2%5.7%
HSBC
4.90%
BofA Global Research2.8%1.4%4.8%0.50%0.1%5.7%


U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)Federal funds target rate (Dec '24)
Headline CPICore PCE
Goldman Sachs2.40%2.60%5.13%
Morgan Stanley2.10%2.70%4.375%
UBS2.70%
2.75%
Wells Fargo2.50%2.60%4.75%-5.00%
Barclays2.70%
5.25%-5.50%
J.P.Morgan2.50%2.50%4.50%
BofA Global Research2.80%
4.50%-4.75%

The Fed's main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%.

S&P 500 targetUS 10-year yield targetEUR/USDUSD/JPYUSD/CNY
Goldman Sachs47004.55%1.10150.007.15
Morgan Stanley4500
11407.5
UBS46003.60%1.151307.15
Wells Fargo4600-48004.75%-5.25%1.08-1.12136-140
Barclays
4.25%1.091457.20
J.P.Morgan
3.75%1.131467.15
BofA Global Research50004.25%1.151426.90
Deutsche Bank1.10135

As of 1301 GMT on Nov. 22, 2023:

Data Table from: www.reuters.com





Other news

Exchange Rates

Currency Buy Sell
EUR USD 1.06 1.10
EUR GBP 0.86 0.89
EUR CHF 1.02 1.06
EUR AUD 1.72 1.70
EUR JPY 116.08 116.56
EUR MYR 4.50 4.77
EUR SGD 1.53 1.57
EUR HKD 8.27 8.53
EUR CAD 1.54 53.84
EUR DKK 9.75 1.55

Most Recent Blogs View All Blogs

08 Feb

Blockchain's Impact on Trade Finance: Shaping Global Commerce

Trade financing facilitates global commerce but involves antiquated systems reliant on manual paperw...

06 Feb

India's Trade Dynamics Amidst the Red Sea Crisis

As of now, there has been no significant impact on India's exports and imports owing to the crisis i...

31 Jan

Choosing the Right Trade Finance Instrument for Your Business

Understanding Trade FinanceTrade finance facilitates transactions and lowers risks for buyers and se...

Disclaimer

Emerio Banque is an innovative global financial institution incorporated in England and Wales with Legal Entity Identifier 875500DGPPWAFABBK130. Emerio Banque does not offer its products and services to businesses and/or persons registered in the United Kingdom.

No information on this website should be construed as a solicitation, offer, recommendation, and representation of suitability or endorsement of any security, investment or strategy.

Important Notice

Emerio Banque would like to advise its customers to report any suspicions which they may have regarding the identity of any intermediary who promotes products or services offered by us or any intermediary bearing similar names. You should verify with Emerio Banque by calling our Customer Service Number on +44 203 059 7831 or emailing help@emeriobanque.com

Please also be aware of bogus SMS messages and voice message calls or fraudsters who impersonate the staff of Emerio Banque.

We have recently become aware of a number of entities with different names misrepresenting themselves as associates, partners or agents of Emerio Banque.

Please be informed that Emerio Banque is not associated with nor do we have any business connections or dealings with such institutions.

Emerio Banque takes all information regarding suspicious fraudulent activity very seriously. Please immediately inform us at compliance@emeriobanque.com if you suspect or are approached by persons misrepresenting or impersonating Emerio Banque and/or its officials. We will make investigations and will take legal action where necessary.